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The Philosopher

Lead from Power or Lead by Negotiating

Lead from Power or Lead by Negotiating Ver. 1.0.1

The Top Gun National Crises Troubleshooter, Retired
https://thephilosopheronpolitics.wordpress.com/tag/Power-Negotiating/
9/22/2015

The laws of Physics and Politics

“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” This is attributed to Winston Churchill, but originally to George Santayana: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”i But perhaps Churchill’s best remark on the subject was this: “When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have affected a cure. There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the sibylline books. It falls into that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong–these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.” ii

Newton’s third law of motion states that, “When one body exerts a force on a second body, the second body simultaneously exerts a force equal in magnitude and opposite in direction on the first body.”iii Jack’s third law of politics states that, “For every use of power there will be an equal and opposite use of power”. iv

The Laws of Birth Order and the Only Child

The recent release of the documentary on pbs.org on the USA Civil War by Ken Burns illustrated some very interested similarities in the leadership (President) during this time, of Civil War, in the 19th century, and the leadership (President) of our current time, in this 21st century involved with a conflict with ISIS.

Aside from both of them being tall skinny lawyers, neither had in their family of origin a sibling with whom they needed to negotiate a workable compromise. This seems to be a skill lacking in their respective skill packages. They both dealt with the situation at hand with the use of power, which was met with and equal and opposite use of power. Since they had no siblings to compete with, they got what they wanted uncontested and brought this style of getting what they wanted to the White House with them. Being the only offspring left in the family, or raised as an only offspring, they received a full load of confidence from their family and a “Can Do” spirit. They both knew they were right even if they were not. v

The Workable Compromise vs Power

The USA Civil War could have been avoided by negotiating a workable compromise with the dissenting states. The slave issue was a political football to put an international bent on the conflict to keep the English and French from supporting the Southern States. The nucleus of ISIS (Sunni Muslims) was dispossessed of their homeland by the USA puppet regime in Iraq (Shiite Muslims). A window of opportunity to negotiate a homeland for the disposed Sunni Muslims existed; instead, a use of power by the present administration was taken in an attempt to form a coalition to wipe ISIS from this Earth. This choice was met by an equal and opposite use of force by ISIS. This situation with ISIS could have been resolved through the use of a workable compromise. It seems that neither the leadership during the USA Civil war or the present administration was concerned with the human cost of getting what they wanted.

A New Election is Upon Us

The choice seems to be clear: Do we want to replace the present administration with a leader who is prone on solving issues with power, or do we want to replace the present administration with someone who has developed the skill of negotiating workable compromises. We are going to elect them to the post of Commander-in-Chief of our armed forces – the most powerful on the planet. The temptation to use power to solve our national and world crises will be tempting for this new President and pressure to use power from the Military-Industrial Complex as described by President Eisenhower. vi.

Birth order and the New President

We have historically elected several firstborn (in their families of origin) to the office of president: J. Adams, Madison, Monroe, Polk, Grant, Harding, Coolidge, Truman, L. B. Johnson, Carter, and G.W. Bush. We have elected several firstborn males: Jefferson, J. Q. Adams, Van Buren, Fillmore, Buchanan, Arthur and Wilson. We have elected a couple functional oldest males: G Washington, J.F. Kennedy. We have elected several functional only children: Jackson, Lincoln, T. Roosevelt, Hoover, F. D. Roosevelt, Ford, Clinton and Obama. The middle born is a natural negotiator.vii We have elected these middleborns to the presidency: Tyler, Taylor, Pierce, Cleveland, Harrison, B. Harrison, McKinley, Taft, Eisenhower and G H.W. Bush. The lastborn bring their special skill package to the office of president; we have elected these lastborns to this office: W. H. Harrison, A. Johnson, Hayes, Garfield and Reagan. viii

What personality and skill package to we want to move us in a positive direction and resolve conflict with negotiating skills rather than power? This skill package will depend mostly on the skills they learned in their family of origin. The natural negotiators are the middle born children, especially those with close older and younger same sex siblings, fewer than five years difference in ages. More than five years difference in ages would result in a functional firstborn, which is not a carbon copy of a firstborn as they were raised with more experienced parents. Who are the options for a good negotiator for the presidency? D. Trump is a middle born but also a functional firstborn, but has he developed negotiating skills? Carly Fiorina is a middle born who seems to have developed negotiating skills. Jeb Bush is a middle born with enough distance from his older brother to be a functional firstborn, but does he have a track record of negotiating workable compromises as the Governor of Florida? H. Clinton is a firstborn, but has she developed negotiating skills as the Secretary of State? Chris Christie is a firstborn and former prosecutor, but is he a negotiator or power seeker? Jim Gilmore, birth order unknown, is a former governor; what is his track record – power or negotiator? John Kasich, birth order unknown, is a governor; what is his track record – power or negotiator? Bobby Jindal, birth order unknown, is a governor; what is his track record – power or negotiator? Lindsey Graham, birth order unknown, is a hawk on foreign affairs and a probable user of power. George Pataki, birth order unknown, is a governor; what is his track record – power or negotiator? Rick Santorum, birth order unknown, is a former senator; what is his track record – power or negotiator? Mike Huckabee, birth order unknown, is a former governor and ordained preacher, and could be a liability in dealing with ISIS which is a Muslim movement. What is his track record – power or negotiator? Ben Carson is the younger of two brothers, which puts him as a last born with special circumstances; he was raised by his mother as an equal firstborn. He would be a mix of a natural firstborn leader and lastborn innovator. What would be his style in solving national problems? Would he use power or negotiate? Marco Rubio’s rhetoric is that of a firstborn; as a state politician, he should have developed some skill in negotiating workable compromises. Is he prone to use power or negotiations to solve national problems? Rand Paul has the demeanor and skills of a firstborn and an experienced politician, but has he learned the skill of negotiating workable compromises or does he prefer power and getting what he wants? As for Ted Cruz, God seems to give the loudest voices to those least likely to put it to good use. His birth order is unknown, but he does not come across as a firstborn. He looks to be hawkist and prone to use of power vs negotiating. Does he have a track record that could predict his future use of power or negotiating? Joe Biden’s demeanor indicates he is the younger of two brothers, as he seems to be very social, which is a characteristic of lastborns. This characteristic could prove useful in international affairs. This, along with his position as a senior citizen, should help him garner respect in the world’s view. He seems more prone to negotiating than the use of power. How does he fit in with the use of power to solve international problems by his president? Lawrence Lessig has that firstborn look about him and seems more concerned with national structure than international affairs; he does not look like a hawk and has no demonstrable preference to the use of power or negotiations. Jim Webb has the firstborn look but looks to seek alternatives to military action. Lincoln Chafee has that firstborn natural leadership look with much experience in the political arena and looks to use other than military means to accomplish USA goals. He does not have much of a fan base. Martin O’Malley, birth order unknown, is a former governor and mayor, so he should have a track record of the use of force or the use of negotiations to solve political issues. Bernie Sanders has that firstborn demeanor a natural leader and with both House and Senate experience, he should have developed the skill of negotiating workable compromises. What is his track record? Does he get what he wants or does he negotiate a compromise? Elizabeth Warren has that firstborn drive from Oklahoma to Harvard Law School to Senator. She is a complete unknown as to her skill in negotiating workable compromises and at this point is not in the running for president. ix

Our Choice of President

The choice is clear. Do we want a hawk or a dove? Do we want the use of power or the use of negotiating workable compromises? More information is clearly needed about these candidates. Can past performance indicate future performance? Can birth order give us a heads up on future performance and the use of power or negotiating?

QED

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i https://www.nationalchurchillmuseum.org/blog/churchill-quote-history/
ii Ibid, House of Commons, 2 May 1935, after the Stresa Conference, in which Britain, France and Italy agreed—futilely—to maintain the independence of Austria/
iii https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion/
iv https://thephilosopheronpolitics.wordpress.com/tag/Power-Negotiating/
v Dr. Kevin Leman, “the First Born Advantage”, Revell, 2008, p69
vi https://thephilosopheronpolitics.wordpress.com/tag/military-industrial-complex/
vii http://drleman.com/
viii http://deadpresidents.tumblr.com/post/15457991558/which-presidents-were-the-oldest-child-the/
ix http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/2016-election/384828/