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The Art of Winning football Games Ver. 1.0.0

The Top Gun National Crises Troubleshooter, Retired

https://thephilosopheronpolitics.wordpress.com/tag/football

11/8/2015

Introduction

Football in the USA is over a century old and there have developed many theories on how to win the game. We think we have made many improvements to the game, such as helmets, shoulder pads, griddle pads, thigh pads, etc. We have also added rules, like not targeting the ball-carrier with a helmet to helmet attack or low hits or illegal blocks. We moved the kickoff up the field to reduce the number of full speed head-on collisions with the special teams’ players. We moved the extra point further back from the end-zone to make the game more interesting. Yet, this writer thinks that unpadded rugby players have fewer injuries and concussions than football’s padded up players. The mentality is that, “I am padded up so I can hit them has hard as I can without injuring myself”. Concussions are caused by the brain hitting the skull; helmets do not stop this mobility of the brain inside the skull.

Game Strategy

Game strategy has advanced beyond anyone’s dreams decades ago. It is amazing how an offense can get a receiver open in the end-zone with members from the offensive team coordinating their moves. But what this writer has observed is that winning the game comes down to the two-second pass, when the quarterback counts, “One one-thousand, two-one-thousand,” and then throws the ball. If a quarterback can do this one hundred percent of his passes, they will have a greater than ninety percent chance of winning the game. If they throw fifty percent two-second passes and fifty percent three-second passes, the probability will decrease to about a fifty percent chance of winning of the game. If the quarterback is throwing four-second passes, he will spend a lot of time being sacked. After three seconds, the quarterback must either throw the ball or start running or scrambling. Several four-second passes will decrease the probability to less than ten percent for winning the game.

Case Studies

Stanford vs Oregon, 11/14/2015: Both teams put into use the two second pass requirement to have a high probability of winning the game. With only a few seconds left in the game, Stanford needed to convert a two-point conversion to tie the game and go into overtime. The Oregon Offensive Coordinator sends in his fastest linebacker with a clear line of sight to the Stanford quarterback. The Stanford quarterback had to throw the ball in one-and-a-half seconds a half second shorter than the play required. As a result the ball was thrown early disrupting the timing of the play and an incompletion resulting in the loss of the game to Oregon by two points.

Ohio vs Michigan, 11/14/2015: In the last few seconds of the game, Ohio needed to score a touchdown to tie the game and go into overtime. The Michigan defense allowed the Ohio quarterback eight seconds to throw the ball into the end-zone for a touchdown and sent the game into overtime.

QED